我国城市商业银行绩效研究 - 基于因子分析法和结构方程模型的实证检验

The performance of urban commercial banks in China -- An Empirical Test Based on factor analysis and structural equation model

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贸易银行作为古代金融机构的焦点,是我国多条理本钱市场的主要构成部门,直接反应一国金融机构成长程度。城市贸易银行自上世纪90年月中期组建以来容身本身现实,充足应用其在产权构造、运转机制、机构设置等方面的灵巧性、有用性完成疾速成长,解脱汗青累赘,完成股分制改造,生长为支撑和办事处所经济成长的主要金融机构。据银行业监视治理委员会统计,截至2013年12月城市贸易银行总数达145家,总资产达151778亿元,与上年比拟同期增加22.9%,银行业金融机构占比10.3%。城市贸易银行历经近20年的成长,由最后的城市信誉社到城市协作银行再到城市贸易银行,其计谋定位和本能机能定位都产生严重变更,城市贸易银行在银行业中也占领越来月主要的位置。城市贸易银行在高速成长的同时,面对很多急需处理的成绩:隐约的市场定位、对处所阅历的成长依附、自觉的营业立异和营业扩大、金融产物趋同景象严重、落伍的运营理念和信息技巧办事程度、股权构造不公道、公司管理不完美等成绩。是以,本文试图构建城市贸易银行运营绩效的综合评价系统,并从微不雅层面剖析城市贸易银行的运营绩效影响身分,具有严重实际意义。本文共分为五章,第一章重要引见本文的选题配景与研讨意义、研讨思绪和研讨框架、本文立异的地方。第二章为文献综述,重要是回想和梳理了国际外学者关于贸易银行运营绩效的研讨结果,并引见国际学者经由过程自创国外学者关于中小银行的研讨结果对我国城市贸易银行的研讨情形。第三章起首在实际回想的基本上提出的城市贸易银行运营绩效的微不雅身分影响机制模子,接着引见贸易银行运营绩效评价的经常使用办法,然后引见本文所采取的因子剖析法的道理、优缺陷和因子剖析步调。第四章为实证剖析部门,分为三年夜部门:第一部门引见本文研讨所采取的城市贸易银行运营绩效评价目标的拔取、样本城商行的拔取、数据的搜集与处置,对综合评价系统目标停止因子剖析后后盘算出各样本银行运营绩效的综合因子得分并采用降序停止排名,对样本银行运营绩效停止扼要评析;第二部门针对本文第三章提出的研讨模子,拔取城市贸易银行运营绩效的微不雅影响身分中的股权构造、银行管理和运营范围三个潜变量为说明变量,拔取城市贸易银行运营绩效为被说明变量,构建构造方程模子,并对各说明变量和被说明变量停止验证性因子剖析,确保丈量模子最好拟合性;第三部门依据所树立的构造方程模子提出城市贸易银行运营绩效微不雅身分影响机制模子,采取2010年至2012年的74家城市贸易银行的数据停止实证剖析。第五章为结论与建议部门,基于实证剖析的成果提出本文的研讨结论,并依据研讨结论对我国城市贸易银行的成长提出响应建议和对策。本文彩用了实际研讨与实证研讨相联合的研讨办法,实际研讨部门重要是对国际外关于贸易银行运营绩效的相干研讨结果停止梳理和总结,而在实证剖析阶段,本文彩用了贸易银行多目标综合评价系统对城市贸易银行运营绩效停止研讨。在城市贸易银行运营绩效评价的多目标综合评价系统的构建中,采取多元统计办法中的因子剖析法对目标数据停止处置,进而构建城商行运营绩效综合评价系统。在验证本文研讨模子和研讨假定时采取构造方程模子剖析各微不雅潜变量对城市贸易银行运营绩效的影响。在实证剖析成果的基本上,本文的研讨结论重要包含以下三点:1、在对69家城市贸易银行2010年度至2012年度盈利性、活动性、平安性财政目标停止因子剖析后提取了四个公共因子,分离是盈利与运营因子、盈利才能因子、活动性因子和平安性因子。以各因子的方差进献率在累计方差进献率的占比为权重盘算样本城市贸易银行的运营绩效综合因子得分,发明排名最高的济宁银行、日照银行和承德银行,排名后三位的是珠海华润银行、昆仑银行和厦门银行。2、本文彩用AMOS22应用74家城市贸易银行在2010年度至2012年度的财政数据对城市贸易银行运营绩效的微不雅身分影响机制模子停止实证磨练发明:城市贸易银行的股权构造对城商行的运营绩效发生负向影响,支撑本文提出的假定H1,而城市贸易银行的运营范围对城市贸易银行的运营绩效发生负面影响,支撑本文的假定H2,银行公司管理对城市贸易银行的运营绩效的影响身分不明显,不克不及支撑研讨假定H3。基于上述研讨结论,本文就进步我国城市贸易银行运营绩效给出了针对性的建议:(1)下降利钱本钱、进步资产盈利才能和风险把控才能,过度进步贷存比率、妥当治理资产活动性;(2)下降股权集中度,优化股权构造;(3)进步技巧立异才能、技巧办事程度,过度跨区域扩大。本文立异的地方在于:从研讨视角来看,本文在联合实际文献和城市贸易银行现实情形的基本上构建了城市贸易银行运营绩效的多目标评价系统并对各城商行停止综合因子得分排名,借以评价各城商行的综合运营绩效程度;从研讨模子来看本文联合文献回想和前文研讨结果提出城市贸易银行运营绩效的微不雅影响机制模子,从微不雅层面的股权构造、运营范围和银行公司管理剖析其对城商行运营绩效的影响。从研讨办法来看,本文以69家城市贸易银行2010年度至2012年度的财政数据为样本,应用SPSS19.0统计剖析软件,采取因子剖析法研讨了样本银行的运营绩效,并以此为动身点构建了城市贸易银行运营绩效微不雅身分影响机制模子。本文应用AMOS22.0统计剖析软件,采取验证性因子剖析停止丈量方程的拟合优度磨练,采取构造方程模子停止构造方程的实证磨练。本文的研讨缺乏在于:(1)研讨样本的局限性。本文拔取了74家城市贸易银行20.10年度至2012年度的财政数据为研讨样本,样本银行约占总样本一半,且样本时光跨度较短,并且某些目标的异常值也会在必定水平上对研讨结论发生影响。(2)目标拔取的局限性。在城市贸易银行运营绩效评价目标系统的构建进程中,本文拔取的目标均为财政目标,而财政目标多反应银行曩昔的运营状态,对贸易银行的运营绩效停止综合评价不免会有必定误差。在构造方程模子的构建中,某些目标的目标性质能够会对构造方程模子估量和模子与现实数据的拟合发生影响。(3)研讨模子的局限性。本文试图剖析从微不雅层面提醒城市贸易银行运营绩效的影响身分,然则现实上影响城市贸易银行的微不雅身分有许多,是以模子构建不免存在某种水平的不公道。在验证性因子剖析中,贸易银行运营范围和银行公司管理之间存在较高的相干性,而本文构建的构造方程模子疏忽了银行运营范围和银行公司管理这两个潜变量之间的高度相干性,并没有树立模子拟合优度更好的多途径剖析模子,本文所提出的研讨模子须要进一步优化。

Abstract:

As the focus of ancient trade bank financial institutions, is mainly composed of Department of China's multi-level capital market, the direct reaction of a country's financial institutions growth degree. City commercial banks since the formation of the last century, the mid nineties shelter reality itself, full use of the structure of property right, operation mechanism, institutional settings, such as smart, complete the rapid growth, free of the burden of history, complete the joint-stock transformation, growth for support and the office of the economic growth of major financial institutions. According to the Banking Regulatory Commission statistics, as of 2013 December city commercial banks a total of 145, the total assets of 151778 billion yuan, and last year compared to the same period increased 22.9%, the banking financial institutions accounted for 10.3 percent. City Commercial Banks after nearly 20 years of growth, by the last urban credit cooperative to City Cooperation Bank and then to the urban commercial banks and the strategic localization and functions have serious change, city commercial banks in the banking industry also occupied more and more important position. Urban commercial banks in high growth at the same time, face and need a lot of processing results: faintly in the market positioning and the growth of local experience dependent, conscious business innovation and expand business, financial product convergence phenomenon is serious, outdated concept of operations and information technology work, ownership structure is not reasonable, the company management is not perfect etc. results. So, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation system of the city commercial banks operating performance, and from the micro level to analyze the effect of the operation performance of city commercial bank's identity has serious practical significance. This paper is divided into five chapters, the first chapter of the article introduces the topic background and research significance, research ideas and research framework, the innovation place. The second chapter is the literature review, it is important to recall and combs the domestic and overseas scholars on the operating performance of commercial banks research results, and introduces the scholars through own foreign scholars about medium and small-sized banks research results on the research situation on China's urban commercial banks. The third chapter in the actual recall is presented based on city commercial banks operating performance micro Ya identity influence mechanism model of, then introduce commercial banks operation performance evaluation of frequently used measures, then introduce this factor analysis of the principle, advantages and disadvantages and factor analytical steps. The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis section, divided into three parts: the first part introduces the paper's research taken by the city commercial banks operating performance evaluation target selection, sample selection, the city firm data collection and disposal, the target evaluation system to stop the factor analysis after comprehensive factor score after figuring out the sample bank operating performance and the descending ranks, a brief analysis of the sample bank operating performance; puts forward second departments for the third chapter of this research model, select the performance of banking operation trade city micro equity structure, influencing factor in bank management and operation scope of three latent variables as explanatory variables, select the city commercial banks operating performance variables that is, construct the structural equation model, and the explanatory variables and explanatory variables stop confirmatory factor analysis, to ensure that the measurement model Good fitting; to establish the third sector on the basis of structural equation model proposed city commercial banks operating performance micro Ya identity influence mechanism model, taken from 2010 to 2012 74 city commercial bank data to carry on the empirical analysis. The fifth chapter is the conclusion and suggestion of departments, the empirical analysis results presented in this paper is based on the research conclusion, and based on the conclusion of our city commercial bank growth and puts forward the corresponding suggestions and countermeasures. The color with the theoretical study and empirical research phase combination of research methods, theoretical research important departments is of home and abroad on the operating performance of the bank trade relevant research results carding and summary, and in the empirical analysis stage, the color used trade bank multi-objective comprehensive evaluation system price of urban commercial banks operating performance research. In the multi objective comprehensive evaluation system for city commercial banks operating performance evaluation of construction, take multivariate statistical method of factor analysis of target data processing, and build the city commercial banks operating performance comprehensive evaluation system. In this paper research model and research to verify the structural equation model to analyze the false timing to take effect of the micro latent variables of city commercial banks operating performance. In the empirical analysis results basically, the research conclusions of this * * * important contains the following three points: 1, in after to 69 Urban Trade Bank 2010 to 2012 profitability, activity, safe fiscal target stop factor analysis extracted four public factor, separation is profit and operating factor, profit factor to, activity factor and safety factor. By using the variance of each factor contribution rate of cumulative variance contribution rate accounted for weight calculation sample of urban commercial banks operating performance comprehensive factor score, the invention of ranking the highest Bank of Jining and Rizhao bank and Chengde bank, after the three ranking Resources Bank of Zhuhai, Kunlun bank and Xiamen bank. 2. This paper, color AMOS22 application 74 city commercial banks in the 2010 to 2012 annual financial data of urban commercial banks operating performance micro Ya element influence mechanism model of stop hone empirical invention: negative effect, to support the proposed hypothesis H1, and the operation scope of the City Commercial Bank of city commercial banks operating performance occurred negative effects occurring in the urban commercial banks, ownership structure of city commercial banks operating performance, supporting the hypothesis H2, bank corporate governance of city commercial banks operating performance influencing factor is not obvious and cannot support the study hypothesis H3. Based on the above research conclusion. In this paper, the progress in China city commercial banks operating performance are also given the for suggestions: (1) the decline in interest costs, improve asset profitability and risk to control in order to, excessive progress loan to deposit ratio, proper management of assets; (2) decline in equity concentration degree, optimize the equity structure; (3) the progress of technique innovation ability, skills, service level, excessive cross regional expansion. Place of innovation of this paper lies in: from the perspective of research, this paper in combined with the actual literature and city commercial banks, the reality of the situation basically constructs the multi-objective evaluation system of the city commercial banks operating performance and on every city firms comprehensive factor score ranking, and apprising the city commercial banks operating performance; from the research model in this paper, literature recall previous research and the city commercial banks operating performance is presented micro indecent influence mechanism model of, from the micro level of equity structure, operation range and bank management analysis the influence of city commercial banks operating performance. From the point of view of research methods, this paper to 69 city commercial banks in the 2010 to 2012 annual fiscal data as samples, application SPSS statistical analysis software, adopt the factor analysis and study of the sample bank's operational performance, constructs the city commercial banks operating performance micro Ya identity influence mechanism model and use it as a starting point. In this paper, using AMOS22.0 statistical analysis software, confirmatory factor analysis to measurement equation of the goodness of fit of temper, structural equation model to take empirical test paper. This research is: (1) the lack of limitations of the research sample. This paper selects the 74 Urban Trade Bank 20.10 year to 2012 annual financial data as the research sample, sample banks accounted for about half of the total sample and sample time span is short, and some of the goals of the abnormal value in a certain level of the conclusion of the study effect. (2) the limitations of using target. In the city commercial banks operating performance evaluation target system in the process of constructing, this paper selects the target are fiscal targets, and multiple reaction bank past operation of fiscal targets, operating performance of commercial banks stop comprehensive evaluation will inevitably have a certain error. In the construction of structural equation model, the target properties of some target can fit the structural equation model and the model with the actual data of the estimated impact. (3) the limitations of the research model. This paper attempts to analyze from micro level remind to the influencing factor of urban commercial banks operating performance, but the reality effect of city commercial banks, micro Ya identity there are many, is in the mold construction inevitably, there are some injustice. In the confirmatory factor analysis, commercial bank management and bank management between high coherence, and this paper constructs the structure equation model neglect bank operating range and the bank's management the two latent variables between the high coherence, and no Shu Limo son of goodness of fit better multi way analysis model and the proposed research model need further optimization.

目录:

摘要4-7
Abstract7-9
目录10-12
1 绪论12-18
    1.1 选题背景及研究意义12-14
        1.1.1 选题背景12-13
        1.1.2 研究意义13-14
    1.2 研究思路及研究框架14-16
        1.2.1 研究思路14
        1.2.2 研究框架14-16
    1.3 本文研究创新16-18
2 文献综述18-23
    2.1 商业银行绩效研究18-21
        2.1.1 国外研究现状18-20
        2.1.2 国内研究现状20-21
    2.2 城市商业银行绩效研究21-23
3 研究模型和研究方法23-32
    3.1 研究模型构建23-26
        3.1.1 股权结构与商业银行绩效23-24
        3.1.2 经营规模与商业银行绩效24-25
        3.1.3 公司治理与商业银行绩效25-26
    3.2 研究方法26-32
        3.2.1 商业银行绩效评价方法26-28
        3.2.2 因子分析法方法介绍28-29
        3.2.3 因子分析法步骤29-32
4 实证分析32-56
    4.1 城市商业银行经营绩效指标体系32-42
        4.1.1 绩效评价体系指标选取32-34
        4.1.2 数据收集和描述性分析34-36
        4.1.3 因子分析36-39
        4.1.4 因子得分和城商行绩效水平排序39-42
    4.2 城市商业银行经营绩效微观影响因素42-52
        4.2.1 各解释变量的指标选取42-43
        4.2.2 解释变量各项指标的数据收集与预处理43-46
        4.2.3 被解释变量的指标选取46-47
        4.2.4 被解释变量的指标收集与因子提取47-48
        4.2.5 结构方程模型48-49
        4.2.6 验证性因子分析49-52
    4.3 结构方程模型检验52-56
5 结论与建议56-61
    5.1 主要研究结论56-58
    5.2 本文研究不足58-59
    5.3 对城市商业银行提升经营绩效的针对性建议59-61
参考文献61-66
附录66-67
致谢67-68
在读期间科研成果目录68