晋升压力、官员特征对我国城市商业银行贷款行为的影响

The influence of promotion pressure and officials on the loan behavior of Chinese City Commercial Banks

摘要:(摘要内容经过系统自动伪原创处理以避免复制,下载原文正常,内容请直接查看目录。)

跟着改造开放以来我国金融体系体例的赓续改造和立异,城市贸易银行的成长也获得了惊人的造诣,特殊是进入21世纪以来,城市贸易银行经由过程股权改造、引进外资和跨区域运营等方法进一步的进步了成长质量,使其在银行业中的位置获得了稳固。截至2012岁终,我国城市贸易银行数目已达144家,有从业人员337.5万人,资产总额达12.35万亿元,胜利冲破了10万亿年夜关,排名仅次于年夜型国有贸易银行与股分制银行。但经由过程回想城市贸易银行的成长汗青我们发明,城商行在成立之初就深深的烙上了处所当局的印子。为了给中小企业供给金融支撑和为处所经济成长铺路,由处所当局牵头,组织社会企业和居平易近投资入股组建而成的城市贸易银行在司法上就确立了当局的控股位置。同时,因为我国处所官员考察机制的忽略,过度看重经济目标的考察机制不只会积聚处所当局短时间内成长经济的压力,并且处所官员基于提升鼓励的压力也会过火的追逐经济成长目标,由此便形成了各地官员为提升而比赛的经济增加格式。而当局在城市贸易银行中的天然控股位置正好为处所官员年夜力成长经济、减缓提升压力供给了方便,特殊是在处所当局融资渠道受限、财务支出削减和对国有银行的掌握力削弱的窘境下,处所官员经由过程当局平台对城市贸易银行存款行动的影响会加倍的显著。不只如斯,处所官员的分歧特点表示也会对城市贸易银行的信贷设置装备摆设形成必定的影响。关于处所当局控股对城市贸易银行影响的成绩一向是业内论的核心,但年夜多半的研讨都逗留在考核当局股权性质对城商行运营绩效的影响方面,并未将处所当局对城市贸易银行的影响推动到官员个别条理。那末基于考察压力和政治提升需求的处所官员会对城商行的存款行动发生甚么样的影响?处所官员的分歧特点能否会招致分歧的存款行动?我们应当若何对待处所官员与城市贸易银行的关系?我国现阶段的官员考察机制该若何修改呢?本文将基于官员政治提升的视角,以我国91家城市贸易银行2010年的数据为样本,经由过程构建官员提升压力指数和官员特点目标来考核处所官员对城市贸易银行存款行动的影响,而且对当局控股下城市贸易银行不良存款的构成机制停止初步的剖析,在此基本上摸索若何修改官员考察目标来弱化这类感化,愿望对正处于转型期内的城市贸易银行改造有必定的自创意义。文章起首对国际外关于当局控股对城市贸易银行影响的相干实际和文献做了扼要的论述,归纳综合了今朝该范畴的研讨热门和偏向。我们从中发明,学术界关于当局股东对城市贸易银行的影响实际年夜致分为两类:一类是晚期的当局股东“成长不雅”,该实际以为当局可以经由过程本身关于微观经济情况的充足掌握来勉励金融机构向社会私家部分存款,为市场生意业务进程中的行动主体供给信息平台,以此增进相干生意业务法式的完美与履行,该实际强调了当局在金融系统中起到的积极感化;而另外一类是当局股东“政治不雅”,支撑该实际的学者以为当局对城市贸易银行一切权的占领会对社会私家融资发生“挤出效应”,而且当局会以股东的权利来干预贸易银行的运营治理,对银行的运营效力和信贷设置装备摆设都邑发生负面影响。固然学术界关于处所当局控股城市贸易银行成果的利与弊存在较年夜不合,但两者都以为当局关于城市贸易银行的一切权是广泛存在的,而且这类影响在经济程度较低、市场水平不蓬勃、经济体系体例不健全的地域更轻易发生。国际晚期的相干研讨重要集中在股权性质对城市贸易银行运营绩效的影响方面,多半的研讨都是经由过程测算分歧性质银行之间运营效力差别的方法来考核这类影响。跟着后来公司管理实际的鼓起,一些学者也测验考试从银行管理构造的视角来摸索当局股东对银行运营绩效的影响。而近几年该范畴的存眷热门则集中在当局股东对银行存款行动的影响机制方面,国外学术界开端测验考试从当局行动的角度来研讨其对贸易银行信贷设置装备摆设的影响,同时有些国际学者也测验考试从银行信贷进程、存款决议计划等方面来剖析当局控股的影响。综合今朝国际外银行当局股东成绩的研讨情形来看,固然在控股性质、运营绩效、运营效力等方面取得了较多结果,同时也将当局控股对银行的影响机制深刻到了详细银行行动方面,但这些研讨结果都还缺乏以说明当局影响银行行动的详细缘由和机制。其次,文章对现阶段我国城市贸易银行的成长近况停止了年夜致的论述。经由过程数据剖析发明我国城市贸易银行重要存在以下成绩:(1)成长范围良莠不齐,城市贸易银行之间差距较年夜。(2)城市贸易银行在运营进程中对焦点本钱的依附性较强,而对从属本钱对象的应用还有待开辟。(3)我国城市贸易银行的存款集中度较高,没有停止响应的拨备笼罩率婚配,所以存款风险较年夜,风险治理程度还有待进步。(4)我国城市贸易银行的股权改造和外部管理亟待深化,年夜部门城商行的外部管理构造都浮于情势,处所当局的内部掌握效应严重。再次,因为我国城市贸易银行的成长起步较晚,市场监管和信息表露轨制还未完美,城市贸易银行的相干数据获得难度较年夜。在文章实证部门,本文经由过程查询城商行官网和报刊消息的方法获得了近120家城市贸易银行的数据,经由过程挑选最初选择了91家城市贸易银行作为本文的实证研讨样本。在实证模子的构建上,本文选用了9个说明变量来对城市贸易银行的存款行动停止剖析,分离为:官员提升压力、官员年纪、官员学历、城商行第一年夜股东性质及持股比例、境外计谋投资、跨区域运营、城商行范围和市场化指数。同时,在官员提升压力目标的结构方面,本文独具匠心,在查阅年夜量文献后,本文选择从城商行地点城市的GDP增加率、生齿增加率、职工工资、掉业率、处所财务增加率和官员任期6个方面来考核官员的提升压力水平。在银行存款行动的量化方面,本文彩用了存款行业、存款风险和存款总量三类目标来停止描写。在实证剖析前,文章还设置了6个假定,经由过程实证磨练得出以下成果:(1)假定1“官员提升压力与城商行存款质量成正比”成立。(2)假定2“官员年纪与城商行存款质量成正比”被谢绝。(3)假定3“官员学历程度与城商行存款质量成反比”被谢绝。(4)假定4“当局股东性质及持股比例与银行存款质量成正比”成立。(5)假定5“境外投资、跨区域运营与城商行存款质量成反比”成立。(6)假定6“城商行地点地域的市场化指数与存款质量成反比”成立。尔后,文章在假定1的基本上持续商量了城市贸易银行不良存款的构成机制,终究发明处所官员会出于提升的压力和需求而影响城商行的信贷设置装备摆设,经由过程进步存款集中度、增长修建等相干行业的存款量来支撑处所经济成长,从而招致了城市贸易银行不良存款的发生。为此,文章还提出了新的官员考察目标来考核处所官员对城商行存款行动影响的弱化感化,终究经由验证发明在官员考察目标中增年夜平易近生、环保等身分的占比有助于城市贸易银行削减不良存款的积聚。最初,文章提出了关于处所官员影响城市贸易银行存款行动的相干结论与建议。起首,提升压力较年夜的处所官员会干涉城商行的信贷设置装备摆设,终究构成不良存款,从久远来看,这对金融市场的稳固成长是晦气的。其次,引出境外投资、完成跨区域运营可以或许进步城商行的存款质量。最初,文章的研讨支撑了当局股东的“政治不雅”这一论点。所以城市贸易银行在将来的改造中应当加倍重视股权管理和优化,以此来弱化处所官员行政干涉的感化,同时也要积极修改我国现有的官员考察系统,加速当局融资平台的立异措施。

Abstract:

Followed the reform and open policy, the style of China's financial system continuously reform and innovation, the growth of urban commercial banks also won the amazing accomplishments, especially since entering the 21st century, urban commercial banks, through the process of equity reform, to introduce foreign capital and cross regional operation etc. methods into a step of progress the growth quality, the position in the banking industry to obtain a solid. As of 2012 at the end, the number of city commercial banks in China has reached 144, employing 337.5 million people, the total assets of 1.235 trillion yuan victory broke through the 10 trillion, ranking second only to the large state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock banks. But through the process back to the development history of urban commercial banks, we invented, city commercial banks at the beginning of the establishment of deeply branded on the mark of local authority. To small and medium-sized enterprises to provide financial support and for local economic growth to pave the way, led by the local government, social organization, enterprise and residents near invested into the city commercial banks in the administration of justice established authorities holding position. At the same time, because the investigation mechanism of our country local officials ignored, over valued goal of economic investigation mechanism will not only within a short period of time the accumulation of local government economic growth pressure, and local officials based on pressure to raise the encouragement will be excessive pursuit of economic growth, thus forming a local officials to enhance, and contest the economic increase in format. And authorities in the city commercial banks in the natural holding position just as local officials on the eve of the force of economic growth, slow pressure to improve supply convenient, especially premises government financing channel limited, financial expenditure cuts and the state-owned banks control weakened the dilemma in that local officials via governments platform of urban trade bank deposit action effect will double significantly. Not only that, local officials said differences characteristics will also configure of city commercial banks credit form a certain impact. On local government holding effects on city commercial bank performance has always been on the industry core, but most of the eve of the research are stay the impact of ownership assessment authorities of city commercial banks operating performance, not the local government effects on city commercial banks to promote the individual officials organized. The effects of pressure and enhance the political demand of the city commercial premises officials will deposit what kind of action based on the characteristics of the local officials? Differences will lead to different deposit? We should how to treat the relationship between local officials and city commercial banks? In the present stage of our country how to modify it official inspection mechanism this paper will enhance political officials? Based on the perspective of 91 city commercial banks in China in 2010 as the sample data, through the process of building officials and officials to enhance the impact of pressure index to assess the characteristics of target city officials on the premises of trade bank operations, and a mechanism of non-performing loans under the city commercial bank holdings of government in this analysis, basically how to modify the official study objectives to explore the effect of weakening, the desire is in the transition period of the city commercial bank reform Make a certain reference. The first international authorities of the actual impact on literature and coherent holding city commercial banks are briefly discussed, summarized the research present the category of popular and bias. We are from the invention, academic circles about the influence of city commercial banks, the authorities shareholders actual Nianye divided into two categories: one is the late authorities shareholders "indecent, the actual growth of" that the authorities can through adequate master process itself on micro economic conditions to encourage financial institutions to the society of private savings, for the action of the main body of supply market and business information platform in the process, in order to enhance coherent business and fulfill the perfect French, the reality that the positive effect to the government in the financial system; and the other is the shareholders "political indecent", the actual support of the scholars believe that the authorities of the city commercial bank all right occupation will happen "crowding out effect" to the society of private financing, operation management and will be in the shareholder right to intervene in commercial bank, the Bank of credit and operational effectiveness Have a negative impact on equipment city. Although academic circles about the local government controlled City Commercial Bank achievements the pros and cons of exist larger differences, but both think authorities on urban trade bank all right is widespread, and this kind of influence in the economic level is low, market level is not vigorous, regional economic system is not perfect is more likely to occur. International advanced coherent discussion focused on the other hand, the nature of equity impact of urban commercial banks operating performance, most of the research is through calculation for different types of banks between operational effectiveness difference method to assess the effect. Then follow the management practice muster, some scholars also test from the bank management structure from the perspective of groping affect the government shareholder in bank operating performance. In recent years, the field of concern hot concentrated in government shareholders on bank deposits action mechanism of and foreign academia started test from the point of view of government action to discuss the commercial bank credit set equipment, furnishings effect, also some international scholars test inspection examination from the process of the bank credit and deposits decision-making to analyze the authorities holding. Current international bank authorities shareholders results in the study, although in holding nature, operational performance, operational efficiency and made more results, at the same time, the authorities holding the mechanism of impact of the bank's profundity to the bank for detailed action, but these research results are still lack of to illustrate with reason and mechanism of the authorities of the bank. Secondly, the article discusses Nianye to stop growth status at the present stage of China's city commercial banks. Through the process of data analysis method of China's urban commercial banks exist the following problems: (1) the growth range of good and bad, city commercial banks between gap is bigger. (2) city commercial banks in operation in the process of the focus of cost dependence is strong, and the application of the subordinate cost object remains to be opened. (3) in our country city commercial bank deposit concentration is high, the provision did not stop response shrouded percentage of marriage, so deposit risk is bigger, degree of risk governance yet to be improved. (4) to deepen China's city commercial bank equity reform and external management, external management structure most of city commercial banks are floating on the situation, the local government internal control effect is serious. Again, because of China's city commercial bank growth started late, the market supervision and information disclosure system is not perfect, the city commercial bank to obtain relevant data is more difficult than nianye. In the empirical section, this paper through the process of query method of city commercial website and newspaper news data obtained nearly 120 City Commercial Bank, through the process of selection were initially selected 91 City Commercial Bank as the empirical research samples. In construction of an empirical model, this paper chooses the nine that variables of city commercial bank deposit action analysis, separated into: official promotion pressure, officials age, official degree, city commercial banks in the eve of the first shareholder and shareholding ratio, overseas investment strategy, cross regional operations, city commercial banks and the market index. At the same time, the officials to improve the structure of the target pressure, the originality, annual night literature investigation, this paper chooses from the city firm locations on the city's GDP increase rate, population growth rate, wages, unemployment, the local finance increase rate and office officials in six aspects to assess officials increase stress levels. In the quantitative aspects of the action of bank deposits, deposit, deposit color with industry risk and total deposits of three kinds of targets to stop description. In the empirical analysis, this paper also set up 6 assumptions, through the empirical test results are showed as follows: (1) assume that the 1 "official promotion pressure and city commercial deposits is proportional to the mass" was established. (2) assume that 2 officials and old city commercial deposit is proportional to the mass was declined. (3) assume that the 3 "official educational degrees and city commercial deposits is inversely proportional to the mass was declined. (4) assume that the 4 "nature authorities shareholders and shareholding ratio and bank deposit is proportional to the mass" was established. (5) assume that 5 of overseas investment, cross regional operation of city commercial banks and the deposit is inversely proportional to the mass "was established. (6) assume that the 6 "City firm location area market index and the deposit is inversely proportional to the mass" was established. Thereafter, articles on the assumption that 1 basically continued to discuss the city commercial banks non-performing loans constitute a mechanism and eventually invented local officials for the demand and the pressure of the ascension and city commercial banks credit set equipment, furnishings, through deposit concentration, growth construction and other relevant sectors of the amount of deposit to supporting local economic growth, resulting in the occurrence of non-performing loans of urban commercial banks. To this end, this paper also proposes a new officials inspected the goal to assessment the weakening influence of the local officials of the city commercial banks deposit action effects and eventually through verification method in officials inspected the target increase Nianye plain nearly students, environmental factors such as accounted for ratio can reduce the accumulation of non-performing loans in the city commercial banks. At first, the article proposed about the effect of coherent conclusions and suggestions of local official bank action trade city. Chapeau, lifting pressure is the eve of the local officials would interfere with the city commercial banks credit set equipment, furnishings, eventually forming a non-performing loans, in the long run, the financial market stable growth is adverse. Secondly, leads to overseas investment, to complete the cross regional operation of city commercial banks can raise the deposit quality. First, the study supports the argument of "political authorities shareholder indecent". So the city commercial banks in the future the transformation should be double pay more attention to management and optimization of equity, in order to weaken the local officials administrative interference effect, also want to actively modify our existing official inspect system, accelerate the innovation measures of government financing platform.

目录:

摘要4-8
Abstract8-9
1. 绪论13-23
    1.1 研究背景13-19
        1.1.1 我国城市商业银行的产生与发展13-15
        1.1.2 金融体系改革下地方政府与城商行的关系15-17
        1.1.3 考核偏失下的政绩效应17-18
        1.1.4 小结18-19
    1.2 研究内容和意义19-21
        1.2.1 研究内容19-20
        1.2.2 研究意义20-21
    1.3 研究方法和框架21-22
        1.3.1 研究方法21
        1.3.2 研究框架21-22
    1.4 可能的创新和不足22-23
        1.4.1 可能的创新22
        1.4.2 可能的不足22-23
2. 文献综述与理论基础23-30
    2.1 文献综述23-27
        2.1.1 政府股东的“发展观”和“政治观”23-25
        2.1.2 政府股东的个体效应25-26
        2.1.3 政府股东与银行行为26-27
    2.2 政府控股城商行的相关理论27-29
        2.2.1 信息非对称理论27-28
        2.2.2 逆向选择与道德风险28-29
        2.2.3 委托与代理29
    2.3 小结29-30
3. 我国城市商业银行现状分析30-42
    3.1 我国城市商业银行数量指标现状分析30-39
    3.2 我国城市商业银行治理结构现状分析39-40
        3.2.1 外部干预控制39-40
        3.2.2 内部权利受损40
    3.3 小结40-42
4. 研究设计42-56
    4.1 样本与数据来源42-43
    4.2 研究假设43-44
    4.3 变量定义与模型设定44-49
        4.3.1 因变量44-45
        4.3.2 自变量45-49
    4.4 变量描述性统计49-52
        4.4.1 因变量统计49-50
        4.4.2 自变量统计50-52
    4.5 变量关系初探52-54
    4.6 小结54-56
5. 实证结果与分析56-69
    5.1 贷款行业56-59
    5.2 贷款风险59-61
    5.3 贷款总量61-62
    5.4 主要结论62-65
        5.4.1 晋升压力对贷款行为的影响62-63
        5.4.2 官员特征对贷款行为的影响63
        5.4.3 其他变量对贷款行为的影响63-65
    5.5 政府控制下城商行不良贷款形成机制初探65-67
    5.6 官员考核机制修正67-68
    5.7 小结68-69
6. 结论与建议69-72
    6.1 结论69-70
        6.1.1 晋升压力导致城商行信贷配置失衡69
        6.1.2 境外投资、跨区域经营能够提高城商行贷款质量69-70
        6.1.3 政府控股的政治观70
    6.2 建议70-72
        6.2.1 城市商业银行改革70-71
        6.2.2 官员考核机制修正71
        6.2.3 政府融资平台创新71-72
参考文献72-75
附录一:城市商业银行数据75-84
附录二:官员晋升压力和特征数据84-90
后记90-91
致谢91